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Gus Faucher, PNC Financial Services Group chief economist, is quick to point out that this recession is very different than any other one that we’ve experienced in the U.S.

“The U.S. economy was generally in good shape in early 2020,” said Faucher. “This recession was caused by an external force from the economy, very different from other recessions.”

Faucher spoke with us at our Economic Forecast Virtual Meeting.

“There’s just a huge amount of uncertainty out there,” he said. “Given that, I would expect to see lots of volatility in the stock market. This is unprecedented.”

Faucher said we will see an intense period of economic contraction in a short amount of time.

But, there is some positive news.

“The good news is consumers are much better prepared heading into this,” said Faucher. “We also are seeing substantial stimulus from the federal government. The hope is that, as consumers are able to go out and spend again, that they will have access to cash and we will see a restart of the economy later in 2020.”

Faucher further explained what to expect in the coming months.

“This will be a very steep recession, but people will eventually need to make purchases,” he said. “I expect economic growth will resume in the second half of 2020.”

As for our region, Forbes ranked Raleigh and Durham among the Top 10 U.S. Cities Best Positioned to Recover from the Coronavirus. Part of that ranking is attributed to our education pipeline and pre-pandemic growth.

Faucher mentioned that growth when discussing the economic impact of the pandemic on our market.

“That very strong population growth set the Research Triangle up for the long run,” he said.

Faucher said he thinks the recovery will start over the next few months.

We want to thank PNC and Faucher for sharing his insights with us and for giving us an idea of what to expect in the coming months.

If you missed his presentation or would like to review what he said, we have a recording of his talk that we are able to share.

Shared from the Wake County Economic Development blog site.

​Guest Writer: Joyce Fang, Marketing Manager, Vaco
At first glance, hiring seems to be in disarray. Headlines are dominated with news of layoffs and record-shattering jobless claims. Even for companies not actively laying off or furloughing, over 46% have frozen hiring initiatives for the near future. Just 51.3% of working-age Americans have jobs; the lowest number since we began recording.

How the business community is responding

Companies are getting creative. Some are even exploring cross-industry talent exchanges. For example, grocer Kroger is temporarily “borrowing” furloughed employees for 30 days from food distributor Sysco Corporation. These types of talent exchanges may become permanent hiring programs for contract positions or seasonal businesses.

Corporate relocations and expansions. Companies revaluating their business models may seek to relocate to slash fixed costs in the long term. Raleigh has always been a popular site for corporate relocations and expansions due to relatively lower taxes and real estate expenses, an innovative industry landscape, and access to a highly educated and skilled labor pool. Rather than suffering from brain drain, Raleigh has “brain gain”, where talent comes and stays, rather than returning home with their advanced degrees and technical experience. Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly just bought 110 acres in Durham in an expansion effort; more may follow.

Remote work is here to stay. The main reasons companies did not move remote were that they lacked infrastructure or thought it would affect team collaboration. With this sudden move, companies have been forced to invest in their remote capabilities and found that collaboration has stayed the same or been positively affected. With this success, companies may think about permanent remote positions to cut real estate costs. Fortune predicts that the number of people who work from home at least half the week could rise from 3.6% before the pandemic to up to 30% by the end of 2021.

NC’s technology industry varies. The tech sector has long been a major player in employing North Carolina residents. Though some tech companies are seeing an increase in demand, many are still viewing hiring with caution. Despite this, tech positions still dominate open job postings. This is true for traditional tech companies as well as any company that relies on IT and a secure, remote infrastructure to conduct business. Some companies are even expanding; last week, Raleigh-based software company Bandwidth committed to a new headquarters and adding 1,000+ jobs. Though NC’s tech sector seems to have inconsistent hiring practices, we assume the demand for IT, remote-readiness and cybersecurity will ultimately drive hiring for tech positions across all industries.

Continuously adapt to evolving employee preferences

Businesses are not the only ones with changing mindsets; this pandemic is permanently changing the way employees and jobseekers view work. As the world is cautiously optimistic that the worst of COVID-19 is over, businesses should get ahead by anticipating and adapting to these changes.
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• With the success of remote collaboration, we expect more employees to request flexible work arrangements. Identify which positions can be at least partly remote and be prepared to discuss this in hiring negotiations.
• Prepare for an influx of candidates. Compared to last year, the volume of applications for roles has doubled. To avoid overloading hiring managers, streamline the activities required within interview and onboarding. Candidates take an average of 91 steps between submitting an application to being offered a position. Scaling this back to the minimum, effective steps will keep top talent interested, while saving internal resources.
• Companies that have not yet already need to invest immediately in their IT infrastructure and cybersecurity. In addition to preparing for continuing flexible work, your organization will be equipped with rapidly adaptive business capabilities.

Need help finding a temporary position or a long-term career? Either way, Vaco can help. Visit our website or blog page today. 

Most people would think Jon Hayes’ business would be struggling through some dark times right now.

“We’re a travel-oriented business and no one is traveling,” said Hayes, the founder and CEO of RewardStock. “The whole world is dealing with some form of this downturn and it’s real.”

Yet, Hayes spoke at our virtual Coffee with Leaders and said, “Somehow, we’re actually doing great.”

To know why RewardStock is doing great now, you need to understand where the company has been.

Hayes, a Raleigh native, worked in investment banking in New York.

“It was the kind of job that requires everything of you,” he said. “It rewards high performers.”

Hayes took a trip to South America with his brother, visiting multiple cities and staying in four and five-star hotels. It only cost him about $200-300 after he used reward points.

“Over the next few years, I really got deeper into rewards points,” he said.

Hayes and his wife went on a honeymoon to the Maldives for about $200.

Four months later, he left investment banking and launched his company to help people maximize their reward points.

“The first year, I realized that it’s very expensive to hire developers,” said Hayes. “I quickly realized that I wasn’t going to be able to hire someone to build everything that I wanted. That first year was teaching myself how to write code.”

He then started meeting locally with investors.

“That enabled me to start hiring some folks,” he said.

One day, he got a support ticket from a user. It turns out that person was a casting producer of ABC’s Shark Tank and said RewardStock would be great.

If you know Hayes’ story, you know what happened next: a deal with Mark Cuban.

“Mark has been fantastic and has been great to work with,” said Hayes. “He is the most responsive person that I have ever worked with. When I write him, he responds to me within 20 minutes every time.”

All of his experiences trained Hayes to run his startup differently than most larger business are run.

“When businesses have larger cash flows, they often build in less of a safety net,” he said.

Hayes had the worst-case scenario in the back of his mind.

“The way I run a business is I assume we have a certain number of months of cash available assuming that we make no revenue,” he said.

That strategy has paid off for Hayes in what should have been the dark times.

“How about a global pandemic that is shutting down worldwide? How’s that for a curveball for a travel startup,” he asked.

“Yet, we are in the most secure financial position we have ever been in,” said Hayes. “We haven’t had to lay anybody off.”

Hayes added, “In the face of challenges, there are opportunities. There are opportunities in the chaos.”

The key to running a successful startup, he said, is to have your company stay alive long enough to get lucky.

“If you want to succeed, get comfortable making sacrifice,” said Hayes. “If you put in ordinary effort, you will get ordinary results. Extraordinary effort will get extraordinary results.”

We want to thank Hayes for sharing the story of RewardStock with us, as well as his insights about navigating a business through the pandemic.

We also want to thank our Coffee with Leaders series sponsor, First Bank, for its continued support and partnership with us.

Our next Coffee with Leaders will be on July 21 where we will hear from Maggie Kane, founder and executive director of A Place at the Table.

Shared from the Wake County Economic Development blog site.

Guest Writer: Joyce Fang, Marketing Manager, Vaco

In a four-week period, jobless claims reached 22 million. This effectively means that, in one month, the US labor market has erased the 21.5 million jobs created since the financial crisis of 2007 – 2009. North Carolina is an unfortunate leader in jobless claims, being one of five states whose claims rose 4,000% or more in the first week of stay-at-home orders.
Fortunately, the US government responded with a record $2 trillion relief package. The CARES Act takes steps to expand support to those traditionally not federally protected, such as sole-proprietors, gig-workers, independent contractors and furloughed workers. Lawmakers are already considering future rounds of economic relief packages, based on day-to-day updates on COVID’s impact on our economy.

Three Things Jobseekers Should Do in the Interim

1. Search for opportunities
Not all industries and job positions have been affected in the same way. There are businesses in the Triangle still hiring. For a running list, check this LinkedIn page, Candor’s user generated report, and WITT’s own job posting page and Twitter feed.
Even businesses that have hiring freezes know that there is a pent-up demand for sales, and therefore talent has not gone away; it has simply shifted several months. As we are cautiously optimistic that we have seen the worst of COVID-19, remember that post-financial crisis, the US added 190,000 jobs a month from March 2010 through December 2017. Knowing this, companies may continue to screen and interview in anticipation of post-COVID-19. As you continue your job search, make sure to update your resume, LinkedIn profile and virtual interview skills.

2. Know your worth
Be open to opportunities. While companies have uncertain cash flow, they are looking to unique solutions such as consultant and contract-to-hire positions. Even if you prefer full-time employment, carefully consider the company and the specific option being presented. Consultant and contract roles may be your best prospect to enter a company for the long-term.
However, don’t let this affect your negotiations. Losses accrued during unemployment translated into annual earnings decreases lasting longer than twenty years. There are a number of reasons for this, but it is possible that jobseekers accepted positions for less than their worth, decreasing future salary increases that are often a percentage of current wages.

3. Stay healthy
The negative impact of unemployment goes well beyond earnings. Modern age is often defined by our job role and, on a deeper level, our ability to care for our families and ourselves. After the Great Depression, US workers were more likely to suffer from a range of physical and mental health complications. Unemployment, and the anxiety that come with it, are the great non-discriminators, affecting “men and women and members of all racial and ethnic groups as well as those with differing amounts of education.” In a Gallup poll taken on April 6 – 12, respondents said their mental health was suffering, even more than their finances.

Though it can be easy to let unemployment-related anxiety consume you, know that everyone around the world is experiencing this with you. The World Economic Forum lists tangible, data-backed steps you can take to care for your mental health.

Keep Moving
Job searches are difficult, so much more so during a global pandemic and economic fallout. However, there are ways you can get ahead of the process. Take the time to care for yourself, and then continue the search. As my colleague, Jake Shepherd, states “Your employment status does not determine your worth. It will be okay. Just keep moving forward.” 

Need help finding a temporary position or a long-term career? Either way, Vaco can help. Visit our website or blog page today. 

In the last two months, all of us have seen our worlds change. No matter what our industry, technology has become an essential part of what we do, more so than ever before.

We planned to discuss a key theme, Tech in the Workplace, at our March Young Professionals Network program. Then, the world changed.

Like so many of you, we pivoted. We began to hold virtual events and it became even more clear that “Tech in the Workplace” is a topic that is front and center in today’s world. Our postponed March YPN topic became the topic of our first virtual YPN program in April.

“At Citrix, we’ve been hyperfocused on helping our customers adapt to these dramatic changes,” said Alysia Baker Eve, director of product marketing for Citrix. She was one of our panelists for the program.

Baker Eve discussed how the changing world is forcing organizations to change the way they think.

“Think about the elements that made your organization successful and how you can leverage technology for those elements,” she said. “This is making organizations manage in a much more personal level.”

Peggy Pranschke, senior director of Data Science and AdvanceAI at Advance Auto Parts, also spoke about the personal nature of work-from-home work dynamics during her presentation.

“Even before COVID-19, Advance gave employees the ability to work from anywhere,” said Pranschke. “Top talent wants to see the flexibility to learn and grow. That includes working from home. They need flexibility, strong healthcare options, and wellness programs.”

The moderator of our panel, Alan Cross, chief commercial officer for Diveplane Corporation, explained how it is important to embrace technology, but not hide behind it.

“Look at how your companies are adapting and consider what changes will be permanent in the future,” he said.
Phaedra Boinodiris with the IBM Academy of Technology pointed out how the disparity between those who have and don’t have internet and broadband access is even more exemplified during the pandemic.

“The disadvantage is for the people who don’t have access at home,” said Boinodiris. “They are truly disadvantaged. The pandemic highlights this digital divide.”

Baker Eve said “this situation highlights how pervasive this is. I hope that we come out of this and give everyone access to what is needed.”

We want to thank all of our speakers for sharing their great insights on this topic, as well as their flexibility so we could change the date of our program.

We also want to thank our sponsors for their continued support of YPN, making programs like this possible.

Our next YPN program on May 21 also will be virtual. You’ll discover ways to align your career and your personal life. You can learn more about the program and register on our event page.