[RECAP] Economic Forecast: What to Expect

Gus Faucher, PNC Financial Services Group chief economist, is quick to point out that this recession is very different than any other one that we’ve experienced in the U.S.

“The U.S. economy was generally in good shape in early 2020,” said Faucher. “This recession was caused by an external force from the economy, very different from other recessions.”

Faucher spoke with us at our Economic Forecast Virtual Meeting.

“There’s just a huge amount of uncertainty out there,” he said. “Given that, I would expect to see lots of volatility in the stock market. This is unprecedented.”

Faucher said we will see an intense period of economic contraction in a short amount of time.

But, there is some positive news.

“The good news is consumers are much better prepared heading into this,” said Faucher. “We also are seeing substantial stimulus from the federal government. The hope is that, as consumers are able to go out and spend again, that they will have access to cash and we will see a restart of the economy later in 2020.”

Faucher further explained what to expect in the coming months.

“This will be a very steep recession, but people will eventually need to make purchases,” he said. “I expect economic growth will resume in the second half of 2020.”

As for our region, Forbes ranked Raleigh and Durham among the Top 10 U.S. Cities Best Positioned to Recover from the Coronavirus. Part of that ranking is attributed to our education pipeline and pre-pandemic growth.

Faucher mentioned that growth when discussing the economic impact of the pandemic on our market.

“That very strong population growth set the Research Triangle up for the long run,” he said.

Faucher said he thinks the recovery will start over the next few months.

We want to thank PNC and Faucher for sharing his insights with us and for giving us an idea of what to expect in the coming months.

If you missed his presentation or would like to review what he said, we have a recording of his talk that we are able to share.